The US, ASEAN and China: a new alignment emerging?

In November of last year, President Barack Obama pledged that he would be a “Pacific President.” While the audience in Suntory Hall may have wondered about the content of that statement few in attendance doubted the sincerity or conviction of the President. As relationships between the US, ASEAN and China have been re-drawn, especially after latest series of ASEAN hosted diplomatic meeting in Hanoi, the meaning of a Pacific President is starting to become clearer. Three sites of change in particular warrant special mention; the East Asia Summit, the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula. In all three cases, the United States and ASEAN states are becoming closer, while China is finding itself distanced from decision-making. Put more directly, the early 21^st century phenomena of China-ASEAN relations being closer that US-ASEAN is reversing itself.

This realignment can firstly be seen in the United States advancing its claim for a seat at the East Asian Summit. Last week the US received an expression of general support from the Foreign Ministers after the Informal Consultation Meeting and Singapore’s Foreign Minister George Yeo later indicated that ASEAN has already decided to include the US in the EAS. Hilary Clinton’s determination to return to Vietnam in October for the EAS together with Obama being scheduled to attend the next year’s EAS in Indonesia suggests that the US is confident that its accession is assured over the medium term. As a part of this process, ASEAN Ministers also welcomed the decision to include the US in the first ASEAN Defence Minister's Plus with Eight Dialogue Partners scheduled for October.

Unsurprisingly perhaps, the only player to not greet increased US involvement in the region warmly was China. China’s Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi was quoted as saying that China "took notes with open attitude" of the ASEAN proposal for an expanded EAS and "look[ed] forward for consultations" with ASEAN on subject (the Nation, July 22). But while China is dissatisfied with the direction the EAS is taking; this is a battle it already knows it has lost. As Wu Jianmin (a member of the Foreign Policy Advisory Group) observed last year, ‘We know that China could not stop the US if it really wants to join the EAS.’ Indeed, according the declaration establishing the EAS, membership is determined by ASEAN alone – and while China is influential it simply can not veto a proposal (unlike in UNSC).

Moreover, China has seen the US and ASEAN draw closer on an issues of major interest to it, the territorial disputes in the South China Sea. Secretary of State Clinton’s identification of this issue as a “pivot” of regional security brings the United States back as a player after more than a decade of diplomatic passivity (to China’s notable discomfort).

The emerging US-ASEAN-China realignment can also be seen in Clinton’s proposal (together with 12 other Asian nations, including the host Vietnam) for a dispute resolution mechanism to be established. Such a mechanism would build on (or over) the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea signed between ASEAN and the PRC. This Declaration can essentially be interpreted as a response to the 1992 ‘Law on the Territorial Waters and continuous Area‘, and reflects an agreement to shelve the issue rather than resolve it – hence the lack of a dispute resolution mechanism. ASEAN efforts to move from ‘shelving’ to ‘resolving’ this issue have been systematically thwarted by China, and so it unsurprising that China would again register dissatisfaction. China’s Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi noting, “turning the bilateral issue into an international, or multilateral one, would only worsen the situation and add difficulties to resolving the issue.” (WSJ China rebuts Clinton). Perhaps Yang meant to add “for China.”?

China’s 1947 Map: basis of the South China Sea Claim: fat dotted lines as limit of territory.

Lastly, this re-alignment can be seen in US-South Korea relations and posturing in the ARF over the sinking of the South Korean corvette, the Cheonan. Again China and the US found themselves in opposite corners over this issue, China reportedly working to remove references to the sinking as a North Korean attack. This disagreement over wording caused adoption of the Chairman’s statement to be delayed a day. Korea’s growing frustration with China’s role in diplomatically supporting the North has, similarly to ASEAN, caused South Korea to look to its traditional security provider, the US. This week’s war games off the Korean peninsula, while clearly focussed on the North, have caused concerns in Beijing. Yet notwithstanding the repositioning of the nuclear powered aircraft carrier the George Washington on the East side of the peninsula, the US and Korea have been willing to disregard China’s warnings. Intriguingly, Japanese officers are observing the joint U.S.-Korean exercises.

In conclusion, a realignment is underway in East Asia. Increasingly, ASEAN (and Korea) are moving closer to the geographically distant US, while China is finding itself surprising distant from its neighbours.

Taiwan: Think further

America's sale of PAC3 Patriot Missiles to Taiwan is stirring up trouble. Excellent article by Leigh Moses here. Highly, highly recommended.

In my mind, I see the decision to go ahead with this sale as a least in part motivated by US concerns about Chinese power. Obama I think has lost patience with the Chinese already, being a liberal (and a socially-conscious lawyer) he seems more concerned about justice than order. The negative position of the Chinese at the COP15 Summit also probably a factor in turning Obama into a China skeptic.

But Obama concerns with justice over order might cause greater injustice still if Moses is correct and the sale of arms to Taiwan tips the domestic balance power away from the CCP towards the PLA in China.

Obama in Tokyo

On Saturday, Obama delivered a speech in Suntory hall. I had the good luck to attend. I think others can do better justice to what he said that I can, but several points could be noted.

Obama made clear the US sees itself as part of the region. The message was simple, "Hatoyama, do not try to exclude us from the EAc." Previously, Hatoyama had diplomatically 'not included' the US in the EAc idea (to the surprise of the Chinese). But now, if Hatoyama really wants to exclude the US, he will have to come out and say publicly and explicitly. Obama has made it a fact on the ground that US assumes and expects Japan will support its role in the region, clearly raising the political stakes for Hatoyama.

Secondly, "balanced growth" was a key word. Others have discussed this, and believe Obama is referring to the need more US exports to the region. I get the feeling he was referring to more than that, a warning the US might be able import as much as expected. The "balanced growth" sound bite I heard to mean "scale back your expectations, we are."

Lastly, on a personal note, despite the pomp and ceremony and the "historical" nature of Obama as President and his return to this region, he was extra-ordinary capable of being ordinary and humble. I got the feeling that this incredible man is just a man after all - the occasional mispronunciation of Asian words for example, complete with a sheepish yet presidential smile, was the trigger for this.