Hatoyama remains popular

Yesterday’s Mainichi reported on results of public polling. It found that Japanese public still overwhelming support (72%) Hatoyama’s government. While dipping somewhat from his highest (77%) immediately after forming government one month ago, this is still surprisingly good. The previous three PM each lost 10% in their first month, as did the more historically similar Hosogawa Administration of the mid-nineties.

The honeymoon is clearly still on, but there are some reasons to think that it will last awhile yet. Firstly, Japanese expectations are not very high. Secondly, Hatoyama is proving himself more media savvy than expected. Thirdly, the administration is actually pushing ahead with policy.

With regard to the first point, Japanese are not expecting all that much of the DPJ. If the DPJ can get Japan through the crisis, then that is success. In responding to the question “do you think your living standard will improve due to DPJ policy, 45% said that they do not think it will change. But just on numbers, two thirds of those should be DPJ supporters. In other words, even maintaining the status quo should be enough to satisfy the majority of Japanese a win a second term.

In addition to this, the dominant reason for supporting the DPJ (78%), was “belief that they can change the way politics is done”. This underlies the importance of the DJP’s attempt to shift Japan into a kind of Westminster-type system, at least with regard to government-bureaucrat relations. Even if the DPJ is unable to actually improve the lot of the average Japanese, providing political reform is seen to be progressing then a good deal of its support should stay.

Secondly, Hatoyama is surprisingly media-savvy. Whether through accident or design, Hatoyama has managed to humanize himself very successfully. The relationship with his wife (Miyuki) has clearly played a role here, but his native humor (something suppressed during the elections) also counts. Anecdotally, Hatoyama carried himself much better at the Sumo than Aso did – engaging in light repartee with Asashoryu (Photo in previous post).

Hatoyama’s administration also benefits from the continued wrangling within the LDP. The chairman of the LDP (not quite the Leader of the Opposition) Tanigaki is not very popular, with 55% not expecting he will really do anything. While a fine politician, Tanigaki’s moves to create a shadow cabinet within the LDP are still delayed, and his appeals for new conservative revival are not likely to distinguish him from the “bad, old LDP”.

Thirdly, and perhaps most importantly, Hatoyama’s cabinet is appears to be driving policy along a good clip. Of the 178 policies promised during the election, Hatoyama’s administration already begun implementing half (49%). Admittedly, only three of those policies have advance beyond the initial stage, but still well ahead of the LDP in terms of dynamism. Even contentious policies, such as Yanba Dam, the DJP have pushed along aggressively, trumping local objections by arguing national mandate. Making Expressways toll free may prove a bridge too far.

Of course, the wild card in all this is the World Financial Crisis 2009. Hatoyama has had a pretty good crisis so far - i.e. he was not at the wheel during the crash. And just by luck, his first month has coincided with some not so bad numbers. Consumption is up, Industrial Activity is up, the unemployment rate has stopped hemorrhaging and Japanese exports are recovering slowly. That will all help Hatoyma and it is all true – but only relative to last month; compared to year ago...well, Japan still a long way to go. If the worsening of the people’s livelihood is placed at the DPJ’s door, then Hatoyama’s popularity will crash – along with a chance to push through his promised reforms. Whether he ends up being blamed in anyway is a question of stage management.

An interesting note, more men support the DPJ than women. I wonder why. Maybe men are by nature more willing to take a risk (on the DPJ) or less forgiving (of the LDP’s incompetence). Any cross country studies on gender and voting patterns?