Tuesday, 22 February 2011

Border Bias, totally reasonable?

The Scientific American is running a piece on Border Bias.

Essentially noting that political borders matter for decision making in ways that are not entirely rational. Of course, political factors are rational after their own fashion, but requires a different type of thinking - and pol. sci. love borders! (not the bookshop, we shop bookdepository.com.)

The experiment had an(hypothetical) earthquake strike within 200 miles of one's possible new house - one choice of house was in state of the quake and one choice out of state (but both 200 miles from epicenter). Unsurprising people generally chose to be out of state althought the risk of another quake is identical. The authors are surprised.

They should not be. Queensland is going to be doing a lot of budget heavy lifting with knock on effects in education and health due the flood - and if the quake occurs in your state then you suffer these indirect effects which would be better to avoid by being out of state- even if risk of future quakes is identical.

perfectly reasonable really

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