Tuesday 19 October 2010

Yasukuni calms situation (reverso-land post)

Event: 66 Japanese Diet-men go to the Yasukuni Shrine (19OCT2010)11am.

Argument and Significance: This is likely to inflame China nationalist passions by conflating territory and history issues in Sino-Japanese relations. This will impact on ability to reach a political conclusion to the dispute (dragging it on).

Analysis: As Anti-Japanese protest continue to rock China (esp. Sichuan province), the decision of a number of Japanese Diet-men to visit the Yasukuni Shrine today is likely be have negative effects.

The first and most important is simply that it puts unneeded pressure on the Chinese Gov't which already calling for calm.

Secondly, it undercuts Japan gov't's own message of remaining calm, both to its own citizens and to the Chinese side.

Lastly, by conflating history and territory issues, Japan is making it easier for the East China Sea to go from a failed attempt at a 'Sea of fraternity' to an outright 'Sea of Hostility.' The Sea of Hostility is most likely to be of an unofficial nature initially, but no doubt Chinese nationalists and Japanese nationalist will be getting in their boats soon. While China has been preventing such boats from launching thus far, the CCP's ability to continue doing so is uncertain.

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