Maehara scraps the 1978 understanding

Foreign Minister Maehara scraps the 1978 informal understanding (with Deng Xiaoping) over the Senkakus.

Ai ya~

http://www.asahi.com/politics/update/1021/TKY201010210259.html

Yasukuni calms situation (reverso-land post)

Event: 66 Japanese Diet-men go to the Yasukuni Shrine (19OCT2010)11am.

Argument and Significance: This is likely to inflame China nationalist passions by conflating territory and history issues in Sino-Japanese relations. This will impact on ability to reach a political conclusion to the dispute (dragging it on).

Analysis: As Anti-Japanese protest continue to rock China (esp. Sichuan province), the decision of a number of Japanese Diet-men to visit the Yasukuni Shrine today is likely be have negative effects.

The first and most important is simply that it puts unneeded pressure on the Chinese Gov't which already calling for calm.

Secondly, it undercuts Japan gov't's own message of remaining calm, both to its own citizens and to the Chinese side.

Lastly, by conflating history and territory issues, Japan is making it easier for the East China Sea to go from a failed attempt at a 'Sea of fraternity' to an outright 'Sea of Hostility.' The Sea of Hostility is most likely to be of an unofficial nature initially, but no doubt Chinese nationalists and Japanese nationalist will be getting in their boats soon. While China has been preventing such boats from launching thus far, the CCP's ability to continue doing so is uncertain.

Senkaku flare up prospects: China pressures Google?

While the Senkaku issue has mostly blown over, the possibility for it to flare up is marked.

Firstly, today the Diet Budget committee agreed to view the footage of the actual collision - although no decision is yet made on whether to release it. I imagine it will be released however, in time and one way or another. The timing of that decision counts, too early and flare up is possible.

Secondly, Japanese media reports that China has asked Google to list the Senkaku islands under two names, the Japanese one and Diaoyutai (chinese name) - in light of the apparent territorial dispute.

After Google's fight with China over access to the market and freedom of speak, the company has less to lose by saying no but absolutely nothing to gain either. Google will probably dual list the island on google maps as asked.

Lastly, the rare earth export issue is still not resolved. This one is really bizarre and the world needs to know what is going on here.

http://www.asahi.com/politics/update/1013/TKY201010130515.html?ref=rss

AMRO, a Thai Head?

Bandid Nijathaworn, the Bank of Thailand's (Central Bank) deputy governor for monetary stability, will resign in order to position himself for a bid as the head of AMRO - the CMIM's secretariat. Being as Thailand initially championed the idea (Chiang Mai Initiatives says it all) but was denied the secretariat due to (continuing) internal civil unrest, it is conceivable that Thailand could win the post of Governor (or whatever) of AMRO as fair dues.

That said, without Thailand firmly behind Bandid (unsure how much time PM Abhisit Vejjajiva has to push his country-man forward) and not being a greater contributor to the fund than other tier 1 ASEAN members, his chances are little more 50:50. Expect to see other challengers come forward.

Senkakus, Japan public rattled

I am still thinking through this months East China Sea issue. But for the time being some observations on Japanese public's view on the issue.

It is no longer just the usual right-wing hacks which are calling China a threat and demanding a more robust response to China’s rise, but now also the main stream which is moving into an anti-China mood.

Newspapers: The left of center Asahi Newspaper run nearly five pages of its Saturday issue with the focus on Japan’s failure to stand up to China. Yomiuri has been averaging about the same of the last week, although less hawkish that than Asahi.

TV: The popular movie director Beat Takeshi joined the chorus on Newscaster on Saturday 25th, leading discussion on China as threat together with his guests. Newscaster probably matters more for public opinion than NHK in certain sections of the less educated in Japan. Interviews with Japanese reveal that most are unhappy with their government's handling, and would prefer an more robust response in the future. Statements of fear and anxiety towards China also are shown from everyday Japanese.

Street-level observations: At train stations and on the Shinkansen, electronic billboards flash the latest news about the Senkaku islands and people stop to look and voice concerns.

Official: Official results of Japan’s public sentiment towards major countries is due out in December and no major media have yet conducted an emergency poll. (still looking).

The results of a (highly unscientific) poll conducted in China on Sino-Japanese relations which revealled 93% of Chinese think the tension will be long term is being reported as news. A feed-back loop of 'they hate us, so we can not trust them' is starting up in japanese media.