The US, ASEAN and China: a new alignment emerging?

In November of last year, President Barack Obama pledged that he would be a “Pacific President.” While the audience in Suntory Hall may have wondered about the content of that statement few in attendance doubted the sincerity or conviction of the President. As relationships between the US, ASEAN and China have been re-drawn, especially after latest series of ASEAN hosted diplomatic meeting in Hanoi, the meaning of a Pacific President is starting to become clearer. Three sites of change in particular warrant special mention; the East Asia Summit, the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula. In all three cases, the United States and ASEAN states are becoming closer, while China is finding itself distanced from decision-making. Put more directly, the early 21^st century phenomena of China-ASEAN relations being closer that US-ASEAN is reversing itself.

This realignment can firstly be seen in the United States advancing its claim for a seat at the East Asian Summit. Last week the US received an expression of general support from the Foreign Ministers after the Informal Consultation Meeting and Singapore’s Foreign Minister George Yeo later indicated that ASEAN has already decided to include the US in the EAS. Hilary Clinton’s determination to return to Vietnam in October for the EAS together with Obama being scheduled to attend the next year’s EAS in Indonesia suggests that the US is confident that its accession is assured over the medium term. As a part of this process, ASEAN Ministers also welcomed the decision to include the US in the first ASEAN Defence Minister's Plus with Eight Dialogue Partners scheduled for October.

Unsurprisingly perhaps, the only player to not greet increased US involvement in the region warmly was China. China’s Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi was quoted as saying that China "took notes with open attitude" of the ASEAN proposal for an expanded EAS and "look[ed] forward for consultations" with ASEAN on subject (the Nation, July 22). But while China is dissatisfied with the direction the EAS is taking; this is a battle it already knows it has lost. As Wu Jianmin (a member of the Foreign Policy Advisory Group) observed last year, ‘We know that China could not stop the US if it really wants to join the EAS.’ Indeed, according the declaration establishing the EAS, membership is determined by ASEAN alone – and while China is influential it simply can not veto a proposal (unlike in UNSC).

Moreover, China has seen the US and ASEAN draw closer on an issues of major interest to it, the territorial disputes in the South China Sea. Secretary of State Clinton’s identification of this issue as a “pivot” of regional security brings the United States back as a player after more than a decade of diplomatic passivity (to China’s notable discomfort).

The emerging US-ASEAN-China realignment can also be seen in Clinton’s proposal (together with 12 other Asian nations, including the host Vietnam) for a dispute resolution mechanism to be established. Such a mechanism would build on (or over) the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea signed between ASEAN and the PRC. This Declaration can essentially be interpreted as a response to the 1992 ‘Law on the Territorial Waters and continuous Area‘, and reflects an agreement to shelve the issue rather than resolve it – hence the lack of a dispute resolution mechanism. ASEAN efforts to move from ‘shelving’ to ‘resolving’ this issue have been systematically thwarted by China, and so it unsurprising that China would again register dissatisfaction. China’s Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi noting, “turning the bilateral issue into an international, or multilateral one, would only worsen the situation and add difficulties to resolving the issue.” (WSJ China rebuts Clinton). Perhaps Yang meant to add “for China.”?

China’s 1947 Map: basis of the South China Sea Claim: fat dotted lines as limit of territory.

Lastly, this re-alignment can be seen in US-South Korea relations and posturing in the ARF over the sinking of the South Korean corvette, the Cheonan. Again China and the US found themselves in opposite corners over this issue, China reportedly working to remove references to the sinking as a North Korean attack. This disagreement over wording caused adoption of the Chairman’s statement to be delayed a day. Korea’s growing frustration with China’s role in diplomatically supporting the North has, similarly to ASEAN, caused South Korea to look to its traditional security provider, the US. This week’s war games off the Korean peninsula, while clearly focussed on the North, have caused concerns in Beijing. Yet notwithstanding the repositioning of the nuclear powered aircraft carrier the George Washington on the East side of the peninsula, the US and Korea have been willing to disregard China’s warnings. Intriguingly, Japanese officers are observing the joint U.S.-Korean exercises.

In conclusion, a realignment is underway in East Asia. Increasingly, ASEAN (and Korea) are moving closer to the geographically distant US, while China is finding itself surprising distant from its neighbours.